Breaking Bad Finale Predictions: Current Odds For Who Survives and Who Dies

In our special look ahead at the Breaking Bad finale, we place odds on the characters left on the show and who has the greatest shot at surviving the last episode airing on Sunday night…

By Damon Martin — Editor/Lead Writer

The finale of Breaking Bad is now less than 24 hours away where we will learn the fates of Walter White, Jesse Pinkman and the rest of the characters Vince Gilligan created and crafted over the last five seasons.

At the end of last week’s episode we saw a broken and battered Walt saunter into a bar with only one wish and that was to provide some financial relief to his reeling family. He was met instead with vitriol from his son Walt Jr. whose only question was why wasn’t his father dead already.

In that moment, Walter White did die and as he dialed the number for the New Mexico DEA office giving them clairvoyance to find his location, he was resolute in his decision to give himself up to the police to hopefully provide some closure for his family at home. A few seconds later, however, with a glass of Scotch in front of his lips Walt spots his old friends Elliott and Gretchen Schwartz from Gray Matter Technologies doing an interview on TV.

In the conversation with host Charlie Rose, Elliott and Gretchen divulge Walt’s true contribution to their company — his last name, which when combined with Schwartz (German for black) they came up with Gray Matter. Outside of that, Walt had no part in the company’s advancements or scientific discoveries, this according to Elliott and Gretchen. To add onto his misery, Gretchen comments that she knows Walter White is dead. Maybe not the man, but the person they once knew as Walt is long gone.

It’s the one true thing Gretchen said because in that moment, Walter White faded and Heisenberg arose. The cops entered the bar and all they found was an empty stool and a glass of Scotch.

We know that this story will pick up back in New Mexico with Walt arriving at his house to pick up the ricin capsule he took at the beginning of season five part two a few episodes ago. In his trunk, Walt had some heavy duty artillery and last we heard before he was carried off to New Hampshire to a life of snow, solitude and two copies of Mr. Magorium’s Wonder Emporium he was planning revenge against Jack and his Nazi gang of thugs who stole $70 million of his life’s work.

So as we approach this final episode that airs on Sunday night, today we’re going to take a look at each cast member left and put the odds on their ultimate survival. It’s hard to believe that Vince Gilligan isn’t going to leave a body count when this show ends, so who has the best chance to make it through and who should start planning for a funeral right now?

Walter White — Current Odds of Survival: 1000:1

Since the say Breaking Bad began, Walt has been on a finite timeline for his life. He was diagnosed with inoperable lung cancer when the series started, and the amount of people that want him dead seems to increase with each passing day. Given the fact that his life was already set to expire about 20 times by now, Walt surviving the final episode would be a miracle. Judging by his arrival at the beginning of this season where he was packing some serious firepower in his trunk and looking for a dose of ricin, he’s gunning for somebody and if he’s returning to New Mexico he probably has no intentions of leaving while he’s still alive.

That said, there are some odds going for Walt in this episode. The fact is everybody assumes Walt is destined to die, so in the ultra juxtaposition of characters maybe he’s the one that survives while everyone around him perishes. It would be the ultimate irony that in Walt’s grand scheme to provide for his family after his death, that he makes it out alive while his family members are the ones that suffers. They are already dealing with quite a bit of peril as it stands with the mask-wearing Nazi bunch paying late night visits to Skyler, before showing up at Andrea’s house to snuff her out like she forgot to tip the pizza delivery boy.

It doesn’t seem likely that Walt makes it out of this episode though. Could the ricin ultimately be for him so he can get revenge on those that wronged him and then he would fade away? There are more possibilities than outcomes that’s for sure, but Walter White is not the betting favorite to live through Breaking Bad‘s finale.

Jesse Pinkman — Current Odds of Survival: 300:1

Jesse seems to be the odds on favorite to somehow make it out of this finale in tact because he’s suffered so much, it would almost seem cruel to end his life. That’s is the entire point of Jesse’s character, however, because he’s watched everyone he’s loved crumble to dust in his presence. From Jane’s death all the way to Andrea disappearing in a cloud of red mist, Jesse doesn’t seem to have much left to lose except for little Brock, who is now left without a mother. Could Jesse ride off into the sunset as a surrogate stepfather to Brock and help raise him after his mother was executed last week?

As cheery as that sounds, the likelihood of it happening seems pretty slim.

Jesse is currently living in a pit of hell (both literally and figuratively) and he’s only being kept alive because he can cook meth with the best of them. We know he’s probably not going to escape Todd and Jack’s compound without some serious help. Is this where Walt comes riding in like a white knight to save his progeny? It could happen that’s why Jesse’s odds are so much lower than his former partner, but with the way characters are dropping on Breaking Bad this could easily end up as Reservoir Dogs by the time it’s all over.

Skyler White — Current Odds of Survival: 5:1

Skyler was oblivious to Walt’s life and then once she learned what her husband was up to, she become complicit in one way or another through everything that he did. In other words, she’s not just some innocent bystander who has no chance of being caught in crossfire or ends up as collateral damage. Skyler has already come face to face with Lydia, a woman that certainly doesn’t want her identity known and tried to convince Todd to do away with her in the last episode.

She obviously came face to black mask with Todd when he offered her a friendly reminder never to mention Lydia to the cops. Skyler has been living in misery these last few months with Walt on the run. She’s working part time as a taxi dispatcher while a neighbor helps take care of Holly. It seems Walt Jr. is doing well enough, but the family is on hard times with daddy dearest on the lamb and every asset they’ve ever made currently on hold to the Federal government.

It seems very unlikely though that Skyler would end up dead in this finale, but remember my point from earlier. It is entirely possible that all of Walt’s crimes end up falling directly on his family’s head while he continues to breathe. Skyler’s death would be the wicked exclamation point on Walt’s evil double life.

Walt Jr. (Flynn) — Current Odds of Survival: 2:1

Probably even lower for Walt Jr. who seems like the most innocent person on this entire show, but that may be reason enough for Vince Gilligan to sacrifice him to the God’s of reality. Fact is the innocent die all the time in the real world whether it’s accidental bullets, drone strikes or just bad circumstances. If watching Andrea get dropped by Jesse’s gun last week was dramatic, imagine the amount of jaws on the floor if Walt Jr. gets capped. The odds are pretty low that it happens, but still whether he knew it or not, Walt Jr. was standing close to a very hot fire for the last few years, and just being Heisenberg’s son automatically paints an awfully big target on his back.

Todd Alquist — Current Odds of Survival: 200:1

Todd might just be the most cold, calculating killer since Anton Chigurh was terrorizing Texas looking for a satchel full of cash. As Jesse describes him he’s that ‘Opie dead-eyed piece of shit’ and all told it’s a pretty accurate depiction. His smile is terrifying, and his demeanor is just this side of The Terminator. Seeing Todd display emotion might be the scariest thing yet and we really haven’t seen it!

Todd has murdered children in cold blood and most recently turned Andrea’s head into a moon roof as retribution for Jesse trying to escape the Nazi-cave. He’s threatened mothers and taken out DEA agents alongside his uncle. The point is there’s not much Todd isn’t capable of doing, and that’s why he is a prime target for termination in the finale. Maybe something bad happens to his crush Lydia that sends Jesse in a rage and in that flickering moment while sadness appears so does a bullet rocketing through his brain.

Then again, as much as he loves his Uncle Jack, he may just abandon them all if Lydia winks at him sideways and they can trek off to Europe as a happy meth dealing couple. It’s pretty unlikely that’s how it ends, but Todd is probably dreaming of that right now!

Saul Goodman — Current Odds of Survival: 1:1

Maybe it’s the best way ever to throw us off, but as of the last episode Saul was on his way to Nebraska with three pairs of dockers and a Cinnabon waiting for his managerial expertise courtesy of Ed the Disappearer. It’s had to imagine Saul making an appearance in this final episode, but maybe he just can’t take that delicious frosting anymore and craves his old life in New Mexico.

Chances are, Saul is living it up in Omaha and will never been seen or heard from again, but you never know with this show.

Jack Welker and his Band of Nazi Thugs — Current Odds of Survival: Jack 750:1, Nazi Thugs: 1000:1

Unless something really strange happens, Jack Welker seems like enemy No. 1 and Walt is gunning for him big time. He stole $70 million from Walt, and if there’s one thing that Heisenberg is famous for it’s getting revenge on those that wrong him. Remember Walt is the one who knocks, and there’s a pretty good chance that Jack and his happy bunch of Aryans are going to be the ones who answer. Jack’s survival rate is pretty low. His group of Nazi co-horts? You might as well slap some red Star Trek shirts on them because there’s very little chance they make the final credits.

Lydia Rodarte-Quayle — Current Odds of Survival: 100:1

Lydia’s tip-toed around death in her short time on the show almost as much as Walt has over the last five seasons. She’s already tried to get Todd to go after Skyler White, and it’s hard to imagine Heisenberg hearing that news and not deciding it’s time to slip some ricin into her chamomile tea. As I alluded to earlier, she could be the catalyst that finally sends Todd off the rails because he is quite taken with her and as Uncle Jack says ‘the heart wants what the heart wants’. If her heart stops beating, will Todd’s icy demeanor fade away? Does Walt target Lydia to get to Todd and his uncle?

There is also a chance we don’t even see Lydia much in this episode, but she popped up last week perky as a cheerleader when she heard that Todd and Jesse were hitting Heisenberg levels for their meth cooking process. She may make one final appearance or be finalized all together.

Gretchen and Elliott Schwartz — Current Odds of Survival: 2:1

Gretchen and Elliott’s appearance on the Charlie Rose show bragging about how Walter White had nothing to do with the advancements that spurned the billion dollar industry known as Gray Matter Technologies is what seems to be the catalyst that burned away whatever was left of the mild-mannered science teacher they once knew and what rose from the ashes was a vengeful and spiteful Heisenberg. There are some conspiracy theories out there that Walt will be gunning for Gretchen and Elliott to bring his sad tale of woe full ciricle, but I believe they were just the spark that lit the fire for him to go back and eliminate Jack and his Nazi gang, who happened to be the latest version of Gray Matter Technologies in his life. It was a surprise to see them pop on screen last week, and it will be an even bigger surprise if they show up in the finale so they seem to have a pretty good chance at making it through this one. There’s no telling, however, if they just get a brief mention as police blotter with dead bodies popping up in Heisenberg’s wake.

So there you have it folks, the final odds for Breaking Bad’s cast of characters. Who will survive and what will be left of them? The only way to know for sure is to tune into Breaking Bad on Sunday night at 9pm ET and then come back to NerdcoreMovement.com for your full wrap up and recap of the last episode.